Thursday, July 26, 2012

Metagame Analysis For This Weekend's Events

This weekend, All-Stars Collectables in the Oxford Valley Mall (in Eastern Pennsylvania) is hosting a Star City Games Super Invitational Qualifier. Their prize payout is extremely solid, their premesis are conductive to gaming, their dealers have good deals, and the tournament is going to be a complete blast. At the moment, I am tentatively scheduled to judge the event, but things may change and I could very well end up playing. With that in mind, I’d like to talk about my current view of the format, and why certain decks are a good or bad idea. I’ll be trying to hit most of the strongest archetypes of the last month, and I’ll include my own decklists at the end of the article.

Overview:
Things have been in flux recently, and M13 is already making its presence felt. The lack of Bans in standard seemed to light a fire in the community, spurring innovation in a number of non-Delver decks. While Delver is still putting up strong numbers, it is no longer the menace that it was. Who is currently vying for the new title of “Villain of the Format?” Is the Naya Humans deck finally ready for the limelight? Is the Zombie menace finally growing horde-like enough to merit serious consideration? Has the sudden shift away from 3/2 Flying One-Drops put Wolf Run Back onto the map?

Let’s take a look at the mtgpulse chart for the metagame over the two months or so. This chart represents both Paper and MTGO (so it will not effectively consider the effect of Magic 2013 quite yet, though it will give us a snapshot to work from.



UW Delver
As we can see, Delver is still the top of the heap, at least in popularity.  In a six or seven round tournament, you can safely expect that you will see it once, if not twice or more. Despite rumors of its death, Delver still has the numbers to put up finishes, and keep in mind that it hasn’t lost anything – the metagame has just shifted around it. Ignore it at your own peril.

The core of Delver’s game plan is Tempo. Their goal is to use the powerful synergy of Vapor Snag +
Mana Leak + Snapcaster Mage to keep you off the board for long enough that it can attack and mount healthy pressure. Failing that, they play for the late game – involving Restoration Angel or Runechanter’s Pike in an attempt to grind out a win with repeated value. After sideboard, they have the option to shift to a more controlling role if appropriate, utilizing Consecrated Sphinx and Day of Judgment to ensure a strong late game.

Zombies
Gaining in popularity over the last week or two, the resilient Zombie deck comes in a number of flavors. UB with Diregraf Captain, BR with Falkenrath Noble, and even some Mono-Black lists employing the new Liliana and Consume Spirit for an explosive finish. Personally, of the multiple types, I’m much more worried about the BR Version. The addition of an extra sacrifice outlet for Blood Artist without having to demolish their own board simultaneously with Killing Wave. The large hasty flyer gives them a strong opening and their recurring creatures mean that powerful sweepers – traditionally the salve against swarm strategies such as this – have limited use against them.

The core of the Zombies plan is an aggressive swarm, focused on the two one drops Diregraf Ghoul and Gravecrawler. With Geralf’s Messenger at the three spot, the deck can put out a ton of pressure very quickly that is remarkably hard to get rid of. Some removal spells can keep the field clear for long enough to put the opponent into lethal range with a Blood Artist. Do not underestimate.

Naya Humans
The Naya Humans deck plays all the best threats. With a pleathora of powerful disruptive early creatures and a startling late game through Gavony Township, this deck is, in my opinion, the one to look out for. It has a threat for every situation – often tailor made to take advantage of specific weaknesses in other matchups. The deck also has the ever important ability to occasionally just win a game: Bonfire of the Damned turns every draw into a random chance to sweep the opposing field and swing for lethal.

Their game plan relies on establishing board presence, and then letting their cards naturally gain advantages. Thalia is entirely one-sided here, since the deck contains next to no spells. Huntmaster gains you value by existing, and Restoration Angel plus Thragtusk is exactly as absurd as it sounds. The addition of Bonfire only makes the plan more frightening. Some versions run Swords as added insurance against something going wrong. (The second place list at SCG: St. Louis two weekends ago featured this – though I’m not sure if I necessarily agree with it.) Once this deck gets ahead of you, it has the tools to grind you into paste and leave your broken corpse beneath half a dozen Golem Tokens.

G/R Aggro
While it hasn’t seemed to be the most prominent deck as of late, any deck that is capable of a Turn 2 Sword of War and Peace, swinging on turn 3, is worthy of note. G/R Aggro does everything that Naya does, while trying to work less for the same result. Wolvir Silverheart and Rancors replace Thalia and Restoration Angel, and the slow grindy advantage from Gavony Township becomes the wrecking ball of Kessig Wolf Run. The deck thrives off needing multiple types of removal to stop it – quick efficient spot removal for mana dorks and sword carriers, but large sweepers for others like Strangleroot Geist.

Personally, I like G/R much less than the Naya versions, mostly due to the ability to grind out a long game. Naya also seems like it has a better disruption package, but that’s more a nod towards my personal playstyle than any objective valuation. G/R aggro is certainly never a deck I’m thrilled to see across the table from me.

Wolf Run Ramp
Another strategy that’s only grown stronger – albeit as their numbers dwindle – is Wolf Run. Kessig is still a powerful card, and though the titans were not reprinted in M2013, they’re absolutely still legal until Return to Ravnica rolls around. With Primeval Titan resolving often being the end of a game, having an efficient answer to the Giant is still important. It’s grip on the midrange decks seems to have dwindled, but with the addition of Cavern from AVR and Thragtusk to help fight against the tide of aggro decks, the deck is still a strong contender.

Its game plan revolves around casting two ramp spells, and then Primeval Titan (often protected by a Cavern of Souls). Backed up by red sweepers, it then uses literally any threat in the deck to deal the finishing blow, backed by a massive power boost from Kessig Wolf Run, or more life from Glimmerposts.

Mono-Green Aggro
Dungrove Elder is a scary card. Rancor is a scary card. Putting them in the same 60 card deck, supported by mana ramp and some of the best Green Creatures ever printed, and it looks like we’re rapidly moving towards a full on deck. Revenge of the Hunted gives the deck an explosive potential to wipe the opposing side of the field for minimal mana cost. Couple that with the consistency of Green Sun’s Zenith (banned in Modern for this very reason) and Mono-Green looks like a very real threat on the horizon.

Mono Green functions like the vast majority of Mono-Green decks throughout the year. It plays creatures, turns them sideways, and watches your health plummet. This version features an all-star cast of creatures that do exactly that. It’s a deck that simply asks “Can you stop me?” and often times, the answer is no.

Esper Control
I would be remiss to not consider the one true control deck in the format. Esper control is an amorphous beast, with many versions floating around that have had varying levels of success. Elesh Norn still remains a trump to the entire format, stopping everything including a bonded Silverheart dead in its tracks, but seven mana has never looked so difficult. The lists that I think look best are heavy on planeswalkers, using Sorin, Tamiyo, Liliana 2.0, and Gideon as a team from hell, holding back the tide while Lingering Souls tokens block and help to screen the way for a board wipe in the form of Terminus or Day of Judgment.  Once the field has multiple walkers on it, with no appreciable pressure, the game is all but over.

These planeswalker lists do have weaknesses – they often don’t run countermagic, and are vulnerable to a quick game if they don’t have a timely board wipe. In addition, the deck takes ages to actually win a game, and so running up against time is a serious concern. I wouldn’t play it, but I do know people who swear by the archetype, and claim a number of good matchups against the field.

Concluding Words:
Obviously this isn’t an expansive look at the entire format. There are variations on all of these, and rogue decks like Tokens and Infect have a more than insignificant presence, but these are the decks that I would include in my testing gauntlet for this weekend. Your deck needs to be able to cope with the best that these can offer, or it doesn’t have the chops to make the Top 8 seats.

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I hope to see you guys at the event. I'll be the blond one, wearing the Judge Blacks. Stop by and say hi if you're in the area. We'd love to have you.

Link to the event if you're interested: All-Stars Collectables Star City Games Super IQ


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