Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Deckbuilding 101: Not Losing To Lands

In the last month, I’ve gotten a number of free wins at tournaments. I watched other people get them too.

“Mull to Six.”
“…I guess I’ll keep this.”
“Mull to Five.”
“Mull to Four.”
“Yea, sure. Thanks deck.”

I talked with my second round opponent afterwards. He was on Esper Spirits, but the black splash that the deck normally takes – solely for Lingering Souls flashback – had been expanded outwards to a full-on three color deck. He had added Hero of Bladehold, Dungeon Geists, and a number of black removal spells. I shook my head.

“No wonder,” I said, “You’re playing three colors.”
He shrugged. “Finkel did it. It’s basically the same list.”
“Not exactly.”
“Besides, you’re playing three colors too!” He gestured down at my deck for the day, Naya Aggro.
“Not exactly.” I repeated.

One of the most important and least cared about aspects of deck building is your land base. Especially now, in an era of colorless-activation lands, enemy color fixing, and alternate-color flashbacks, access to mana has rarely been more important – and never have the players been more ambitious with trying to make it work.

Unfortunately, ambition often leads its way to taking mulligans all the way into oblivion.  Where do things go wrong? Usually right from the start. Let’s take a look at some of the common problems.

Play All The Colors!
Let’s say we have a nice, mono-blue  Standard deck. This doesn’t really exist in standard, but it’s the baseline from which we’ll work. This deck REALLY wants to play a Delver of Secrets on turn 1, and follow it up with a mana leak on turn two. Say we want to also cast Dissipate on T3, and Snapcaster Mage into Mana Leak again on T4. Assuming a land base with 23 or 24 Islands, what’s the chances of us getting the correct lands? That’s right. It’s pretty good assuming you keep a hand with more than one land.

On the other hand, we’ll take a deck such as Solar Flare from Innistrad’s debut. This deck had a notoriously horrendous land base, and part of that was its need to heavily play three colors. Here's a sample mana base from one of the first events it was legal in:

Island
Plains
Swamp

So, in this deck, we need to hit the following mana considerations:
T1: Nothing. The deck did not play any 1-drops. This is, perhaps the only reason the deck could function. The addition of a 1-mana spell would strain the lands even more dramatically.
T2: We need {U} for Think Twice or Mana Leak, or {B} for Doom Blade. A single UB dual land, or two basics should cover this without difficulty.
T3: Here’s where things get tricky. We want {B}{B} for Liliana of the Veil, but also {W} for Timely Reinforcements. Both are critical to our safety. We also need {W} for Oblivion Ring, {U} for Forbidden Alchemy, and {B} for Tribute to Hunger.
T4: By this point, we would prefer to have {W}{W} available for our three Day of Judgment, but we also need to consider Snapcaster Mage at this point, requiring severe colors to flash back anything, potentially even {U}{U} for a flashback Mana Leak.
T5+: Eventually, we are planning on utilizing all of our colors in the late game for Elesh Norn, Sun Titan, Unburial Rites, a variety of Counterspells, as well as Snapcaster Mages and their affiliated flashbacks.

To avoid falling behind in tempo, we also want our lands to come into play untapped. When this Solar Flare mana base was published, there was no Evolving Wilds in the format to fix your colors.

Quick, thought experiment time:  Find me four lands in sequence that give you {U} and {B} on turn 2, {B}{B} or {W} on turn 3, and then {U}{U},{ B}{B}, or {W}{W} on turn 4, using the above land list.

I don’t doubt that it’s possible. My first impression is to lead with Seachrome Coast, then Swamp, followed by Isolated Chapel, and then any untapped land on the fourth turn.  See, not that difficult, right? It only required me to draw the singleton Seachrome, and one of two Swamps.

Are there other solutions? Absolutely. There’s probably a ton of permutations that would allow it, but the fact that it takes time to work out the correct line of play for your lands should tell us something: There’s a reasonable chance that, with a deck like this, we’re not going to have our ideal land drops. If you’ve played magic for any length of time, that should scare you. Note that the above mana base doesn’t include any colorless sources, which only make colors more difficult to get on a regular basis. There is a lot of power in those colorless activation lands. Kibler has raved more than once about the power of Gavony Township, Moorland Haunt is a mainstay of the most dominant deck since Caw-Blade, and Vault of the Archangel is bolstering the Tokens deck to nearly-unraceable status.

What do you do in this deck with a Think Twice and a Liliana, your mana sources being Isolated Chapel, Glacial Fortress, and Darkslick Shores?

Worse yet, that mana base was Top 8 at a 500+ person event, so we can infer that it was one of the best possible versions of an Esper land base back then.

Mono-Green Aggro looks a ton more stable from that angle. It seems really easy to just play a Forest every turn. Does this mean we should just cut our losses and play Mono-colored decks all the time? Absolutely not! Two color decks can be very nearly as consistent, and a third color splash isn’t difficult if you keep an eye on your double-colored costs and colorless sources. The goal, then, is to get as much power into the deck while keeping it consistent.

For a common current example, adding Blue to a White-based creature strategy, at the moment, is relatively painless. Merely add the eight U/W lands available, plus 2-3 Moorland Haunts, and you gain an incredible amount of power (Being able to recur 3-6 spirits every game) for relatively little cost. (With only 2 sources that don’t make white, how often won’t you be able to case Mirran Crusader on T3 for {W}{W}{1}?)

Can You Afford That, Son?
It may be a less common problem, but every so often, you’ll see a Red Deck, running 21 lands, and expecting to play Urabrask, or Inferno Titan. Even just adding those as singletons, you commit your deck to being able to drop a fifth or sixth land when reasonably, you won’t be able to.

Yes, more expensive cards are more powerful, as a general rule, but it’s critical for you to understand how often you can hit those relative land numbers. I could link a bunch of charts, explaining with statistical precision how land drops work over turns, given varying numbers of lands in your deck, but all those charts never did anything for me. Personally, I use the following guidelines:

Quick and Dirty (23-): Only do this if your mana curve tops out at 3 or less. I hesitate to suggest it even then. This rule can be bent for some older decks who work extremely efficiently, such as Legacy Burn, but as a general rule, you should not go below 23.

The Sweet Spot (23): Twenty Three seems to be a great number for a large number of decks, especially of the aggressive persuasion. It allows you to consistently hit three mana on time, and very often, get your fourth land drop without much delay. I would hesitate before playing 5-drops though.

Midrange(24-25): For those of us who like our five slot, you may want to consider adding an extra land or two. Also consider this if you have a number of colorless sources – things like Moorland Haunt, Gavony Township, or Kessig Wolf Run. As of late, I have been favoring this option more often than not, because of the power of the lands currently available to us from Innistrad Block, as well as Inkmoth Nexus.

The Top Shelf (26+): With 26 or more lands, you’ll be able to reach 6-drops consistently, but you open yourself up to an entirely different can of worms. At this point, you’ve gone from 1/3 of your deck containing lands up to nearly half. This means that your late game top-decks will be blanks more often than not. Generally, this many lands is the realm of controlling decks with good card drawing and filtering, to allow them the ability to throw bad ones back, and keep drawing gas.

Again, all of these are suggestions – not hard and fast rules.  Add more lands if your play testing reveals you always wanting more after your turn. Remove some if you top deck land too much, and find yourself light on gas in the later game. I cannot overstate the importance of testing to discover this. I’ve built aggro decks that have had enough Flashback and Card advantage that I never found myself needing more spells – but always wanting another land, even if my curve ended at four.

Remember, it’s a lot easier to lose games to mana screw than mana flood. When in doubt, err on the side of additional lands, and try to make those lands as powerful as possible.

Tight Play
All of this planning should lead us somewhere – to having a deck that has a consistent mana base and plays out well the majority of the time. However, even the most lovingly crafted creation is subject to the whims of fate. You will get bad hands. Even a deck with 45 lands will sometimes draw none of them. Even a deck with 5 lands will occasionally draw them all. Some would say that this is just variance, but in actuality, it’s another chance to prove your skill.

The ability to accurately assess an opening hand’s playability is one of the most critical skills that you can cultivate as a Magic player.

Proper mulliganing skill is far more complex than can be covered as a subtopic in an already long article, but it does dovetail significantly with your deck building and your mana base. The Proper construction of a deck will allow for two things: Less frequent mulligans, and less impactful mulligans.

The first half of that seems fairly intuitive. A deck with a proper curve and a reasonable land base should be more likely to draw a solid hand than a five color monstrosity that runs nothing except one-mana cantrips and seven-mana bombs. The second half, however, is a little more ephemeral. What does it mean to have less-impactful mulligans?

For an example, I offer Caw-Blade during the height of its power. Because of the deck’s natural card advantage engine in Preordain, Squadron Hawks, and Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Caw Blade was afforded an almost unparalleled ability to mulligan without penalty. When you can effectively draw three cards on your second turn by playing a creature or Brainstorm for free (literally, without even spending a card), you can regain a great deal of the threat density that you lose by tossing back your first hand. In standard now, we have a number of options that permit this same effect. We can play cards like Faithless Looting, which can fix land-starved or land-flooded hands. Cards with flashback, like Lingering Souls, provide additional options without costing us extra cards. Snapcaster Mage provides similar benefit. A mulligan to six isn’t as damaging to Delver as it might be otherwise, because they have such card selection and recursion – they can often make up the difference.

It is this effect that allows a Wolf-Run Ramp deck to mulligan to five, and keep a hand with two basics, two ramp spells, and a titan. Because of the inherent power in the cards being used (Especially the titans), and the strong central core tenants of the deck (Ramp into a titan, which finds me the tools to win the game), the loss of a card or two from their opening hand, while not ideal, is not as crushing as it would be to a poorly constructed deck. In short, a good deck’s plan is hard to derail.

Compare that with UB control at the moment, which has an extremely sturdy landbase, but even a mulligan to six leaves them with their back against the wall. As your cards outnumber theirs, the resolution of a single threat could very well put the game away.

So, next time you’ve built a shiny new homebrewed deck and you toss a land base together, stop and look again. Lay out your lands and ask yourself: Could these do more? Are these doing enough? How often will this cause mulligans, and is the power increase worth the corresponding loss of a card to more common mulligans?

Moreover, is the way that I constructed this deck costing me games?

My guess is that by making this an active part of your deck building, you’ll find that you have a much firmer footing in games, and your deck will seem to guide itself towards your top 8, rather than fighting you all the way to the 0-2 bracket.

The exercise for this week is simple: Take a deck that you own, and post your land base. Why did you choose those lands? Why those numbers? Do you have any colorless non-basics? How critical are they to your overall plan? Analyze your land base in as much detail as you’d like, and post the results either here in the comments, or on reddit.

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Thursday will be a departure from the normal tournament report format since I didn’t play in anything last weekend. Instead, we will delve a little deeper into my preparation for any given event, with an eye towards what I’ll be playing this Saturday at the World Magic Cup Qualifier in College Park, Maryland! Tune in to see how I’m preparing for the event – and the PTQ the next day.

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