Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Deckbuilding 101: Evaluating Cards

For those of you spending all your free time refreshing spoiler sites, it would appear that we have some early M13 cards. This is a joyous occurrence for deckbuilders everywhere, because there's a notable lack of titans so far, and a pretty robust set. Early indications that the Ravnica Shocklands will be returning seem to be strewn about the set, and I know at least one person who's excited to see a Legendary Goblin scheduled to be in the set.

But what does a new set mean for us, as deckbuilders? Obviously, there's going to be shakeups to the metagame. Last time we had a set release, we got powerhouses like Wolfir Silverheart and Zealous Conscripts. People wondered at the potential power lurking in the 4 mana Restoration Angel, and many other cards saw hype rise and fall. With every new set comes the same question asked over two hundred times.

Is this card any good?

The Formula for Good Cards
When I started playing Magic, way-back-when in 5th Edition, we had a pretty simple formula for determining if a creature was good. Add together their power and toughness, divide by two, then add one for each ability that the creature had. That should be its mana cost. So a 1/1 should cost 1, and a 1/1 with flying should be two.

We were not exactly world-class planeswalkers, you may have guessed.

Sadly, there is no cut and dry formula for deciding if a card is any good, because each card is good or bad purely in context of other cards. Stromkirk Noble is a staple of a Standard Red Aggressive deck, but you wouldn’t dream of seeing it in Legacy. With a much larger card pool, we have more options for our decks, and so weaker cards get culled more easily. Why play a 1/1 that needs to attack multiple times in our one mana slot when we can just play Goblin Guide? Have you seen Goblin Guide? That guy is insane!


















But that’s not the only concern. If that was the case, each format would just replace the appropriate cards with ‘upgrades’. Fortunately for us, Magic is a complex game that has interactions beyond simple ‘better’ and ‘worse’. For an example, let’s take a look at Mental Misstep. You may have seen this card in the sideboard of a few standard decks, mostly in – or to fight against – Delver decks. Because their decks are so heavily-laden with one-cost spells, Mental Misstep is a powerful weapon against them, but lackluster against many other decks. It is an appropriately powerful card in this format, and sees some sideboard play. Great!

Take the same card in the Legacy format though, and you get a metagame warping monstrosity. Mental Misstep single handedly twisted the metagame until you either constructed your deck with 4 of them, or you didn’t play one-drops to make your opponent’s Missteps worth it. Because the individual cards in Legacy are so powerful, Mental Misstep’s negligible cost becomes far more worth it. Why spend two life in Standard to stop a 1/1 attacker? You wouldn’t. In Legacy, that same creature is likely a 2/2 with haste, or a Mother of Runes. When your answer is stopping a much more powerful card, it becomes more valuable itself.

It didn’t take long for Wizards to pull the plug and ban Mental Misstep in Legacy. It was on the inaugural ban list for Modern as well, because Wizards feared the pressure that it would put on beatdown decks. Yet at the same time, it still sees only sporadic sideboard play in Standard.


Making the Call
How can we decide where a card falls on the power spectrum? It depends what the card is designed to do.

For threats – cards that are designed to help end the game, the math is generally pretty simple. We want a card that puts significant pressure on your opponent for an appropriate cost. A recent icon of this would be something like Champion of the Parish. While he’s only a 1/1 on his face, he costs 1 mana, which allows a lot of flexibility in casting him. More, he grows, and can grow quickly into a large threat. Gather the Townsfolk allows you to attack for 3 damage on the second turn, which is a mark not often allowed in Magic because it puts so much pressure on the opponent. This is generally powerful, and allows our 1 mana spell to demand an answer from our opponent. If they don’t have one, they will take a lot of damage quickly.

The math is a little more complicated when it comes to answers. Is Shock good? Probably not in a format with Lightning Bolt, but if there’s no other burn spell at one mana, and Stoneforge Mystic is running rampant, we could certainly consider it.

Which is better? Galvanic Blast or Pillar of Flame? Welcome to a complex question that RG Aggro has been dealing with for over a month now. Galvanic Blast’s metalcraft is only rarely relevant at the moment, because RG Aggro doesn’t tend to run many artifacts, so the argument boils down to “Is Instant Speed better than Exiling creatures instead of killing them?”


















Or perhaps more succinctly:

“How many creatures with Undying do you expect to see?”

At the moment, I’d lean towards Pillar of Flame in the majority of cases. It’s less good against Delver, but still very serviceable. On the other hand, it provides huge gains against Zombies and Blood Artist decks, which have been increasing in popularity lately with their success on the Star City Games circuit. It also does good work against Strangleroot Geist.

Historical Context
An aside here – evaluating cards often happens in a historical context. When a card is first spoiled, many people’s first instinct is to compare it to previous versions of similar effects. Take Cloudshift – is a flicker effect worth one mana and a card? (Always consider that effects cost you a card in your hand! That is a limited resource.) Let’s look at previous versions of similar effects.

















Saving Grasp allows a number of similar interactions. It lets us re-use our Enter-The-Battlefield triggers, but forces us to re-pay the creature’s cost. It can blank a removal spell like Cloudshift, but forces us into two colors. Most importantly, it gives us two uses. Overall, the two are similar in scope, if not power. Cloudshift is more of a hyper-efficient cost/effect, where Saving Grasp does a number of things that we might not necessarily want – like forcing us to repay full-cost for a creature.

Another example could be Griselbrand. Aside from being a 7/7 flying lifelink, his ability is very reminiscent of Necropotence. Since Necropotence was a tournament dominating card during it’s time, we would be remiss to not give Griselbrand his due as a possible threat. While his mana cost of 8 is very restrictive, there are reanimation effects. The question then becomes: Are the hoops we need to jump through to get Griselbrand in play worth being able to play with a virtual Necropotence?

Spoiler Alert: Oh yea.

That’s Bad Right Now
Let’s take a look at a powerful card. Its name is Hero of Bladehold, and it’s a 3/4 for 4 mana. When it attacks, it gives our attackers a modest +1/+0 bonus, and also creates two creatures. That appears powerful. A 4 mana creature that attacks for 7 damage among 3 creatures (and 11 the following turn if nothing interferes!) is significant and capable of ending the game itself. It has 4 toughness, well out of range of the majority of burn spells. It is a staple in a number of aggressive decks, and often ends the game.

It’s also terrible more often than not.

Hero of Bladehold is a 4 mana spell, which is already on the higher-end for an aggressive deck. It requires a lot of things to go right in order for it to do its job optimally. You need to do the following:

-Survive until your turn 4
-Have 4 mana, including two white
-Cast the spell without it being countered
-Have the creature (and you) survive until turn 5’s combat phase.
-Opponent cannot have a creature bigger than a 3/4.

It may not seem especially difficult, but when a deck like Delver is capable of chaining 3-4 vapor snags, one after another, then it seems less good. Hero of Bladehold is a spectacular creature in the abstract, but it fails when exposed to an actual environment. A cost of 4 mana presents perfect timing to walk into a board wipe against your aggressive deck. Hero has no relevant protection from removal, which has caused it to wane in popularity often whenever there is a ‘test’ card. Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Dismember, and Vapor Snag are all real problems for it.

We need to keep this in mind when deciding the relative value of a card. This should not be confused with the ‘dies to removal’ argument. There are many people on forums who will argue that if a creature can die to removal, it is useless.

Dies to Removal
Creatures can be removed from the battlefield. This is a truth of the game. There are very few creatures out there that don’t die to removal, and they tend to either be absurdly expensive, or have some other manner of drawback. We should keep this in mind when evaluating cards, but it should not be the limit of our argument. Yes – Restoration Angel is powerful because it gives us significant value even if our opponent has a Doom Blade, but that does not mean that Wolfir Silverheart is a bad card. No matter how you slice it, Silverheart is often worth 12 power and toughness for 5 mana, spread over two creatures.




I plug that into my 5th Edition calculator, and it breaks because it’s more than twice as powerful as it ‘should’ be.

‘Dies to Removal’ is an argument, but it needs to be weighed against the relative power of the card. Remember, Deceiver Exarch dies to removal as well, but that doesn’t matter when your card effectively reads “During your upkeep, if you have a card named Splinter Twin in your hand, you win the game.”

Sure, it dies to removal – or you win. That seems like a fair deal for 3 mana. I’d love to do that a few times every game. I dare say that I’d probably win with it a few times.

Exercise of the Day:
Here’s what I want you to do. Look at a deck – preferably one that you play on a regular basis. Pick a card in it, and then explain why it is powerful, and why it deserves a spot in your deck.

Try to place it in the context of the format you play– Standard, Legacy, or even Casual. This could be as simple as “I run Leyline of Punishment because I play casually and two of my friends gain a lot of life” or as complex as running Uvenwald Tracker in Legacy Maverick because of considerations with the mirror matchup.


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